Chinese
tungsten prices shifted up again before China’s week-long
National Day holiday, on tight concentrate supply and strong downstream demand
from the hard alloys sector. Tungsten concentrate is trading at 90,000-91,000
yuan ($13,437-13,586) per tonne, up 3,000 yuan from last week, the highest
level since August 2008. “Demand from the hard alloys sector is
still robust, while supply of concentrate is very tight now as miners have
finished most of their production quota for this year,” said a producer in
Jiangxi province, a major source of tungsten.  Due to a series
of heavy…

The U.S. tungsten market continues to firm at the hands of Chinese suppliers, with domestic ammonium paratungstate (APT) rising as much at 10 percent in the past month alone.

Prices for APT in the North American market have climbed to between $235 and $240 per short ton unit (stu), traders told AMM, up from the $215- to $220-per-stu range reported at the start of September and well above the $170- to $190-per-stu spread seen at the onset of the year.

“Tungsten never took the big run up like the other specialty metals, so kind of its time has come,” one trader said.

The price rise is mostly a supply-side issue, as a series of heavy rainfalls in major tungsten-producing areas of China, a shortage of concentrate and…

European ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices are rapidly approaching $280 per mtu and could soon breach $300 per mtu, as neither traders nor consumers see prices falling in the short term.

European APT rose to $270-273 per mtu on Wednesday from $266-271 previously, and offers are already above the new range.

“It’s all looking incredibly strong, and there will not be a correction for some time,” a trader said. “The days of cheap tungsten are long gone and we’re entering new territory now.”

The trader bought two containers at $270 per mtu, while a second trader booked a deal at $271. Both told MB that those prices were no longer available, with the first adding that he had an offer out at $276 and would not accept a lower price, while offers out of China are as high as $280.

The catalyst for higher prices in APT has been higher concentrate prices out of China, the largest supplier of tungsten concentrates to the global market.

Chinese tungsten concentrate basis 65% WO3 is trading at 93,000-94,000 yuan ($13,956-14,106) per tonne, from $84,000-85,000 yuan at the beginning of September and 68,000-69,000 yuan at the beginning of the year.

“The rising concentrate price in China is partly due to rising costs and partly due to the sentiment among producers,” a second trader said.

The strengthening of the yuan seen over the past two months – from 6.66 to the dollar on October 25 from around 6.81 at the beginning of September – and the tightening export licences could see APT soon breaching $300 per mtu in Europe, he added.

“There’s a good chance that it could,” he said. “The Chinese are now regularly talking about prices above $300. It’s not there yet, but it doesn’t have far to go.”

Though some buyers may question a further $25 per mtu price rise, when set against the recent performance of other noble alloys, suppliers say it does not seem such a stretch.

Considering that European APT prices are quoted in mtus and not kgs, the distance to $300 seems much smaller, the second trader said.

“Blue tungsten oxide is priced in kgs and is now at around $27.80 per kg,” he said. “When you’ve seen how quickly the nobles move, going from $27.80 per kg to $30 per kg is not a big leap, and buyers have to come to grips with that.”

In the past few months, for example, ferro-molybdenum has gained $2 per kg and then lost $2 per kg, with each move taking just three weeks. Ferro-molybdenum was trading at $39.50-40.50 per kg on Wednesday.

There is nothing to suggest that prices will not continue to strengthen through the rest of the year and into 2011, market participants said.

“Until there are enough concentrates coming out of the ground to alleviate the tight situation, or the situation where Chinese producers can do what they want, it all means one thing – higher prices,” a consumer said. “As long as demand stays where it is, there is no reason for the rally to stop.”

As well as higher prices for mined concentrates in China, domestic demand is also rising, further sapping export volumes that have already been diminished by falling export quotas.

“Straightforward internal demand in China is rising even if the economy has slowed a bit,” the first trader said. “But even if it slows to 7.5% growth, that’s still a hell of an increase in tungsten consumption, and imports of concentrates into China have fallen as well, so the pressure is really on.”

The all-time high in MB’s European APT price quotation is $285-295 per mtu in July 2005, while the last time the price breached $280 was in April 2006.

On each of those occasions, the price was considered to be overdone and a correction duly followed.

“The last time prices were up here it was overcooked, and there was a correction,” the first trader said. “This time it is not overcooked. The demand is there.”

So long as that demand is maintained, APT prices are unlikely to fall substantially until new supply sources are brought online, and that could be some way off.

“There is not sufficient concentrates coming out of the ground to stop it,” the consumer said. “Every mine that could potentially open is being opened, and others require a lot of investment. That certainly needs to happen if we are to get relief from the tight supply situation.”

Flooding hits China’s W mining

The
heavy rains and flooding in Jiangxi province have disrupted tungsten ore
mining, sources said. The result has been that suppliers holding ore have
become reluctant sellers.  They are
certain that the flooding will continue to affect output for several weeks and
that prices will rise over time. 
Roughly 40% of Olina’s tungsten concentrateoutput comes from Jiangxi
province.. China’s licensed mines produced 40,369 mt of W03 in concentrates in
the first five months of the year, up maIginally from production in the same
period of 2009. Production in Jiangxi province fell 25% in the January- May
period compared to the year-ago period to 14,935mt of W03.ln May alone, anna’s
ore prodUdion was 11,038mt of W03′ up II% compared to May 2009.

Currently concentrate prices
have finned to $188-193 per mtu compared to $186-191. Surprisingly APf and FeW
prices have not risen with the concentrate inaeases. APf is quoted at $232-237
per mm, f.o.b. and fenotungsten is at $31.~32.50 per kg, f.o.b. OUna’s APr
exports rose to 630 mt in May compared to 392 mt in April and 83 mt in May
2009. Through May, AJ7f exports were 2,052 mt vs. 726 mt in the same 2009
period.

Exports were: 830 mt (247 mt in the first five months of
2009) to Rotterdam; 651 mt (214 mt) to Japan and 514 mt (262 mt) to the US.
Chinaa’s exports of ferrotungsten were 553 mt in the first five months of 2010
compared to 962 in the year-ago period. Exports were mainly: 337 mt (205 mt) to
Japan and 191 mt (699 mt) to Rottenlam. Ferrotungsten exports in May were

50 mt compared to 42 mt in
May 2009.

Cost going up and supply coming down.

China APT exports rise to $238-240 fob on stronger yuan

Shanghai 07 July 2010 05:34

Chineseammoniumparatungstate(APT) exportprices roseby $3-4 per mtu this week on a strongeryuan,backedby higher pricesfor

concentrateand domesticAPT. APT export prices have climbed to $238-240 per mtu fob China after staying at $235-236 fob for over a month. “Yuan appreciation is the main reason for us to lift prices,” said a trader in Beijing, adding that the yuan has fallen against the dollar by 0.06 yuan from mid-June.

This means that export costs for the trader have increased by 15.8 yuan ($2.5) per mtu, he added. An exporterin Jiangxi,a major source of China’s tungsten, agreed, saying that his company had concluded a deal to Europe at $240 fob. “Demand is better than the same period in previous years, as far as I know. Many converters in the Europe are still maintaining some productionduringthe summerholidaydue to low inventoryafter last year’s financial crisis,” said the Beijing trader.

Still-rising tungsten concentrate and domestic APT prices also contributed to the firm APT export prices. ‘We raised our July concentrate offer by 1,000 yuan from June to 83,000 yuan [per tonne),” said a source at Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Group,

adding that its mines, which were shut in mid-June on heavy rains, have resumed production. Tungsten concentrate was trading at 83,()()().84,5oo yuan per tonne on Wednesday, up ~1,OOO yuan from last week. “I think concentrate prices are unlikely to fall in the near term as supply is not sufficient, and demand from APT is solid,” said a ferro-tungsten

producer in Hunan. Prices of domestic APT were at 129,000-130,000 yuan per tonne, up 1,000-2,000 yuan from early June, said an analyst in Beijing. “Many ferro-tungsten producers have switched to produce APT recently, as many downstream hard alloys producers still have a lot of orders. The ferro-tungsten market is very poor in line with the current weak steel market,” said the ferro-tungsten producer.

The producer is also set to produce APT as soon as they finish maintenance. “Ferro-tungsten market is quiet, both at home and abroad. We raised our offers to $34 [per kg} cif due to higher concentrate prices and yuan appreciation, but could not attract any buying,” said a producer in Jiangxi. Export ferro-tungsten prices were last at $31-33.5 per kg fob China, with no deals reported this week.

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